Potential remains for severe bushfires in southern NSW and Victoria this summer after an early active start to the season, despite recent rainfall, Risk Frontiers says. 

Australia experienced its driest-ever September and this month began with multiple fires across NSW and Victoria and a number of houses destroyed in the Bega Valley region. Soil moisture deficits last month were the lowest on record in the bushfire-affected areas.  

“Although recent heavy rainfall has temporarily reduced the risk, and the seasonal rainfall outlook is relatively benign, there remains a potential for more severe bushfires in the near future,” Risk Frontiers says in a briefing note. 

Australia’s climate this spring and summer is being influenced by an El Nino in the Pacific and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole. The events are typically associated with warmer and drier conditions in southern Australia. 

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